Stac’s Rant Vol. 2: More Than Meets the Eye

Why Derek Carr Has Been (even) Better Than You Think He Has:

I know fans (and the media) are usually either praising or looking to replace the quarterback. So, before we all decide the Raiders need to Draft a QB to develop, let’s see how Derek Carr’s 1st four seasons compare to ALL the other NFL starting QB’s first four seasons.

Method used: Quantifiable & Comparable 

Quantifiable:

Looking at tangible metrics, such as: touchdowns per start; interceptions per start; yards per attempt.

I tried to include every tangible main stream statistic that I have access to.

Comparable:

Derek Carr has (basically) four full seasons played. We can’t compare that to Tom Brady’s career or Jimmy G’s 7 starts.

Let’s compare Derek Carr’s 1st four seasons vss the 1st four seasons of every other current starting QB in the NFL who has  started at least 16 games. Since every category is based on averages, this seems to be the fairest evaluation possible.

Some of the QB’s with a smaller sample size could potentially raise or lower their averages, but most of the QB’s being compared have been in the NFL longer than four seasons.

I also didn’t want to compare beyond that, because the longer you play, the more you develop & the better you get. I wanted more of a comparison and ask the question, “What do NFL QB’s look like through their 4th season in the NFL & how does Derek Carr compare”?


Results

Ranking the QB’s in the categories of:

Passer Rating

Touchdowns Per Game

Interceptions Per Game

Sacks Taken Per Game

Completion Percentage

Yards Per Attempt

Total 4th Quarter Comebacks

Percentage of Wins from 4th Quarter Comebacks


Derek Carr is 2nd ONLY to Russell Wilson after four seasons in the NFL. Nearly Half of Derek Carr’s wins had to come from a 4th quarter comeback. Basically, if Carr doesn’t do something amazing in the 4th Quarter, the Raiders don’t usually win.

This isn’t a proclamation. This is an ongoing evaluation.

After the season, we will see how Carr compares to everyone else after five seasons. So far, when you compare Carr’s start to the “elite” QB’s first four seasons, he’s doing pretty well. We all want to see it translate to wins, and even with the QB position being as important as it is, it’s still a team game.


Written By: Stacanova

@stacanova